Analytics Dashboard — Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness • Internal Use Only • Data grounded in FY2024 & FY2025 10-K filings
10M Customers 8,983 Stores 12K Products

Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness: Front Store Optimization

Targeting $21.5B in front store revenue with smarter coupons, better inventory, and margin protection across 8,979 stores.

P&CW Total Revenue
$139.4B
FY2025 (10-K)
▲ +11.9% vs FY2024
Front Store Revenue
$21.5B
FY2025 (10-K)
▼ -0.3% vs FY2024
Gross Margin
18.5%
P&CW segment FY2025
▼ from 20.2% FY2024
Store Count
8,979
End of FY2025
▼ -156 net vs FY2024

Synthetic Data Assets

Pre-aggregated from 10B transactions

Customers10,000,000
Transactions (2yr)10,000,000,000
Products (OTC + Rx)12,000
Store Locations8,983
Coupon Clip Events16,400,000
Transaction Date Range2024-01 to 2025-12

Product Tier Strategy

How we bucket products based on coupon behavior

Coupon Loyalist
Coupon Curious
Organic Star
Hidden Gem
Loyalists: High clips + high redemption → reduce discount, they'll still buy
Curious: Clip but don't redeem → sweeten the offer slightly
Organic Stars: Sell well without coupons → stop discounting, protect margin
Hidden Gems: High margin, low velocity → promote to increase discovery

Front Store Revenue Trend (10-K)

Annual front store revenue with same-store-sales growth rate

FY2022
$22.8B —
FY2023
$22.5B +0.3%
FY2024
$21.5B -2.1%
FY2025
$21.5B +1.2%

Top Products by Revenue

Ranked from 10B synthetic transactions. Each tier gets a different coupon playbook based on how customers actually engage with discounts.

OTC Products
10,000
Rx Products
2,000
Product Categories
27
Brands
321

Revenue by Category

OTC categories ranked by synthetic transaction revenue

Pain Relief
Top seller
Cold/Flu/Allergy
Seasonal peak
Vitamins
High margin
Skincare
Brand-driven
Digestive Health
Repeat buyers
First Aid
Consistent
Oral Care
Store brand opp
Eye/Ear Care
Niche
Baby & Child
Growing
Grocery/Snacks
Impulse

Sample Product Tiles

Sample products by tier — each one gets a different coupon approach

Coupon Loyalist
Tylenol Extra Strength 100ct
Tylenol
$1299
Margin: 48.2% Clip rate: High | Redemption: 72% Action: Reduce discount 5% — they'll still buy
Organic Star
DD Health Ibuprofen 200mg 50ct
DD Health
$749
Margin: 62.1% Sells well with zero coupons Action: Stop discounting — protect margin
Hidden Gem
Neutrogena Hydro Boost Serum
Neutrogena
$2499
Margin: 55.8% High margin, low discovery Action: Promote — targeted recs to likely buyers
Coupon Curious
Vicks DayQuil Cold & Flu 24ct
Vicks
$1579
Margin: 44.6% Clip rate: Med | Redemption: 18% Action: Sweeten offer to convert clippers
Coupon Loyalist
Advil Liqui-Gels 80ct
Advil
$1449
Margin: 45.3% Clip rate: Very High | Redemption: 68% Action: Reduce discount 3-5%, maintain volume
Organic Star
Colgate Total Toothpaste 5.1oz
Colgate
$599
Margin: 51.2% Staple purchase, no coupon needed Action: Maintain price, no promo

SmartRewards & Digital Coupons

16.4M coupon clip events across 10M customers. We're building on top of one of the largest retail loyalty programs in the country.

Total Clips
16.4M
Digital coupon events
Avg Redemption
35%
Across all types
Active Clippers
~12%
Of 10M customers
Unredeemed Clips
~65%
Waste & opportunity

Redemption by Discount Type

Dollar-off converts best; BOGO underperforms despite perceived value

Dollar Off (35%)
45% redeemed
Percent Off (50%)
35% redeemed
BOGO (15%)
25% redeemed

Coupon Strategy Opportunities

Tailored moves for each customer-product pair

$2 OFF
Reduce from $3 OFF for Loyalists
Customer bought this 8+ times with coupon. They'll still buy at a smaller discount.
Clips: High
Redemption: 72%
Margin saved: +$1/unit
20% OFF
Increase from 15% for Curious
Customer clipped but never bought. A better deal might get them over the line.
Clips: Med
Redemption: 0%
Expected lift: +18%
NO COUPON
Remove discount from Organic Stars
Product sells at full price. Discounting just burns margin here.
Clips: None
Organic rate: 94%
Margin protected: Full
Bayesian approach: If a customer keeps buying something with a coupon, we use Bayesian updating to estimate how likely they are to buy at a smaller discount. When that probability is high enough, we cut the coupon. Simple prior (base purchase rate) + observed behavior = smarter discounts per customer-product pair.

Markets & Store Performance

8,983 synthetic stores mapped to real store IDs, weighted by actual store density. Revenue per store tells us where to deploy first.

Top Markets by Revenue (Synthetic)

State-level rollup from customer purchase data

California
~12.2% share
Florida
~9.1%
Texas
~8.1%
New York
~5.1%
Ohio
~5.1%
Pennsylvania
~4.8%
Illinois
~4.4%
Massachusetts
~3.8%
New Jersey
~3.5%
Georgia
~3.2%

Store Count Trend (10-K)

Net closures of ~250-300 stores per year

YearStartOpenedClosedEndNet Change
FY20239,67439(318)9,395-279
FY20249,39539(299)9,135-260
FY20259,13587(243)8,979-156
Deployment note: We're losing ~250 stores a year, so any rollout has a shrinking base. Start with 500 high-performing stores, measure for 90 days, then expand. Don't extrapolate pilot results to the whole chain.

10-K Financial Reality

Straight from the SEC 10-K filings — FY2024 (filed Feb 12, 2025) and FY2025 (filed Feb 10, 2026). Every projection ties back to these.

Consolidated Revenue ($M)

Source: 10-K SEC filings

Line ItemFY2023FY2024FY2025FY24 vs 23FY25 vs 24
Products$245,138$231,521$249,908-5.6%+7.9%
Premiums$99,192$122,896$134,751+23.9%+9.6%
Services$12,293$16,239$15,175+32.1%-6.6%
Net Investment Income$1,153$2,153$2,233+86.7%+3.7%
TOTAL REVENUES$357,776$372,809$402,067+4.2%+7.8%

Segment Revenue ($M)

SegmentFY2023FY2024FY2025
Health Care Benefits$105,646$130,665$143,354
Health Services (PBM)$186,843$173,605$190,425
Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness$116,763$124,500$139,367
  ↳ Pharmacy$92,111$100,687$115,510
  ↳ Front Store$22,458$21,522$21,459
  ↳ Front Store % of P&CW21.1%19.1%17.1%

P&CW Margins & Profitability ($M)

MetricFY2023FY2024FY2025
Cost of Products Sold$91,447$99,337$113,583
Gross Profit$25,316$25,163$25,784
Gross Margin21.7%20.2%18.5%
Adjusted Operating Income$5,963$5,774$6,040
Adj. OI Margin5.1%4.6%4.3%
Margin compression is the top concern. Gross margin dropped from 21.7% to 18.5% in three years. Protecting margin on organic stars — stop discounting stuff that sells fine without it — may matter more than chasing volume.

Earnings & Same-Store Sales

MetricFY2023FY2024FY2025
Net Income$8,344M$4,614M$1,768M
Diluted EPS$6.47$3.66$1.39
Pharmacy SSS+13.6%+12.3%+18.0%
Front Store SSS+0.3%-2.1%+1.2%
Rx Volume Growth+3.9%+6.8%+8.0%
Prescriptions Filled (M)1,649.11,715.51,808.8

Revenue Impact: Conservative Projections

Anchored to real 10-K numbers. We're intentionally conservative — better to beat the number than miss it.

Base year: FY2024. Front Store Revenue: $21,522M | P&CW Gross Margin: 20.2% | Front Store SSS: -2.1% | Store Count: 9,135
Conservative Scenario
Coupon activation lift+2%
Redemption improvement+3%
Hidden gem velocity lift+10%
Organic star margin save+1.5%
Basket size lift+1%
Frequency lift+0.5%
Front Store Lift~1-2%
Incremental Revenue$200-430M
Moderate Scenario
Coupon activation lift+5%
Redemption improvement+6%
Hidden gem velocity lift+20%
Organic star margin save+3%
Basket size lift+2.5%
Frequency lift+1.5%
Front Store Lift~3-5%
Incremental Revenue$600-1,000M

Why Conservative Wins

The math: 1-2% lift on $21.5B = $215-430M. That's real money. Doesn't need to be $2B to matter.

The market already priced in the decline ($6.47 → $3.66 → $1.39 EPS). If we go conservative and beat it:

  1. Stock re-rates on the earnings surprise
  2. Management builds credibility
  3. The rec system gets more funding

If we swing big and miss: credibility tanks, program gets killed.

With EPS falling, margins compressing, and stores closing, anything above "moderate" won't fly with investors or the board.

What Happens If We Do Nothing

  • Coupon waste continues: 65% of clips go unredeemed
  • Hidden gems stay hidden: High-margin products nobody finds
  • Organic stars get discounted: Blanket promos eat margin on products that sell fine without them
  • No personalization: Every customer sees the same offers
  • Competitive gap widens: Other retailers with rec systems keep pulling ahead

Shrinkage & Loss Prevention

No shrinkage figures in the 10-K. Estimates below come from Congressional testimony, NRF industry data, and analyst extrapolation. This is a defensive play — protecting what we already have.

Disclaimer: Shrinkage estimates are NOT from the 10-K. Sources: executive Congressional testimony (~$200M/year in ORC losses), NRF industry averages (1.4-1.6% of sales), and analyst extrapolation.
Est. Shrinkage (Low)
$301M
1.4% of $21.5B front store
Est. Shrinkage (Mid)
$344M
1.6% of $21.5B front store
ORC (Testimony)
$200M
Organized retail crime

Loss Prevention Device ROI

Estimated costs and deterrence rates (industry averages)

DeviceAnnual CostTarget ShrinkEst. SavingsNet SavingsROI
EAS Tags (disposable)$0.4M30%$61.8M$61.4M+14,750%
RFID Inventory Tracking$1.0M20%$58.3M$57.3M+5,630%
Locked Display Cases$15.8M15%$43.8M$28.0M+177%
Self-Checkout AI$137.0M10%$29.2M($107.8M)-79%
TOTAL$154.2M—$193.1M$38.9M+25%
Locked cases cut sales 15-25% because customers walk away. RFID savings come mostly from catching admin errors, not theft. Self-checkout AI is a money pit at current prices.

Combined Revenue Opportunity

Rec system + loss prevention combined

Recommendation system (conservative)$200-430M
Loss prevention (EAS + RFID only)$118.7M
Combined Conservative Estimate$319-549M
On $21.5B in front store revenue, that's a 1.5-2.5% combined lift. This is the number we should present.